Showing posts with label Features & Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Features & Analysis. Show all posts

Monday, March 17, 2014

The Warner effect, and Johnson v Steyn



David Warner cuts for four, South Africa v Australia, 3rd Test, Cape Town, 4th day, March 4, 2014
David Warner was involved in eight of the ten highest partnerships for Australia in the series, plus he scored 117 runs from 94 balls off Dale Steyn © Getty Images 
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It was billed as the clash of the top two teams in Test cricket, and the three Tests largely lived up to the hype. The pitches didn't always behave the way they were expected to, with Port Elizabeth and Cape Townboth making the bowlers toil extremely hard for wickets, but the bowling quality of both sides ensured that in each Test there was one team that was able to overcome the conditions and force a result.
In the end, South Africa were only 27 balls from ensuring a drawn series, but the overall numbers for the series clearly show that Australia were the better team. They scored more runs and hundreds, took more wickets, and forced the pace of the game more often than the hosts did. South Africa were terribly unlucky with fitness issues, especially those relating to their premier fast bowler, but Australia overcame the disadvantage of playing overseas, and ultimately showed plenty of resilience to seal the series victory, and with it the No. 2 ranking in Tests.
Here are some of the key factors that turned out to be the difference between the two teams.
David Warner
This series was expected to be an extremely tough one for batsmen - especially openers - with each team boasting a fine array of fast bowlers, in conditions which were expected to assist them. Three of the four openers who played more than one Test at the top of the order averaged less than 31 in the series: Chris Rogers scored a fine century in Port Elizabeth but scored only 74 in his other five innings; Alviro Petersen aggregated 65 from four innings, while Graeme Smith had a forgettable farewell series, eking out 45 runs from six innings.
In the midst of all this, David Warner had one of the finest three-Test series ever by an Australian opener, scoring 543 runs at 90.50, with three centuries, including one in the first innings of the Cape Town Test. Only Matthew Hayden, who made 549 in India in 2000-01, has made more in a three-match series for Australia. Admittedly he had some luck, but he made it count, and was almost always fluent, assured and aggressive at the crease. His strike rate of 86.74 further ensured that when he was making runs, he was always getting them quickly, which moved the game forward and put South Africa on the defensive.
Both teams had a couple of middle-order batsmen who stood firm and averaged more than 50 - AB de Villiers and Hashim Amla for South Africa, Steven Smith and Michael Clarke for Australia - while there wasn't too much difference between the lower orders either. Thus, Warner was largely the reason why Australia's average runs per wicket was about 12 more than South Africa's.
Australia and South Africa in the 3-Test series
TeamRuns scoredWkts lostBat aveRun rate100s/ 50s
Australia19464642.303.817/ 4
South Africa16515530.012.983/ 6
Position-wise break-up of batting averages for both teams
 AustraliaSouth Africa
 RunsAverage100s/ 50sRunsAverage100s/ 50s
Openers72460.334/ 220917.410/ 2
Nos. 3-796540.203/ 2106638.073/ 3
Nos. 8-1115015.000/ 027418.260/ 1
Warner's presence at the top of the order also had a large hand to play in ensuring that Australia's average partnership for the top two wickets were 56 and 69, with six partnerships exceeding 50. Of the ten highest partnerships for Australia in the series, eight involved Warner, which indicates just how influential he was to Australia's batting display.
For South Africa, on the other hand, the top two wickets averaged about 11 runs per partnership, which means on average the team was two down for about 22. The partnerships for the first wicket read thus: 11, 6, 10, 20, 7, 12; and for the second wicket: 4, 6, 1, 22, 35, 0. South Africa's average stand for the first two wickets was 11.16, the second-lowest ever in their Test history (with a cut-off of ten partnerships) and thelowest in more than 100 years - their worst was in 1912, when the first two wickets averaged 10.33 per partnership in England. The middle order, led by de Villiers and Amla, helped resurrect the innings, but the difference in partnership runs for the top two wickets was a key factor, which again highlights Warner's role in the series.
Average partnerships for each wicket for Australia and South Africa
 AustraliaSouth Africa
WicketInngsAve stand100/ 50 p'shipsInngsAve stand100/ 50 p'ships
1656.162/ 1611.000/ 0
2668.671/ 2611.330/ 0
3637.000/ 2647.161/ 2
4652.001/ 0643.330/ 3
5572.001/ 1636.670/ 2
6516.250/ 0654.001/ 0
7421.750/ 0537.200/ 1
8432.330/ 0535.800/ 1
933.000/ 0516.400/ 0
10215.000/ 057.400/ 0
The pace contest
This series was always going to be a battle between the two pace attacks, and while South Africa had the better of the exchanges in Port Elizabeth, Australia won the overall contest: their fast bowlers averaged 27.42, while South Africa's conceded almost 42 runs per wicket. The difference in averages wasn't as much between the spinners of the two teams, but Australia's slow bowlers - led by Nathan Lyon - certainly gave the captain more control, going at only 2.59 per over, while South Africa's slow bowlers conceded almost four per over.
Pace and spin for the two teams in the series
 WicketsAverageStrike rateEcon rate
Aus pace4227.4255.482.96
SA pace3241.8469.843.59
Aus spin1138.9089.912.59
SA spin1245.0069.083.90
Johnson v Steyn
Steyn was clearly far from his best in two out of three Tests, and absolutely unstoppable in Port Elizabeth when he was fully fit. However, over the entire series Johnson bested him, taking 22 wickets at 17.36, to Steyn's 12 at 26.41.
After the Centurion Test, there was a suggestion from Smith that Johnson tended to be more effective against the tail than against top-order batsmen, but in this series Johnson took plenty of top-order wickets too - 17 of them, at 17.47.
Johnson v Steyn in the series
 WicketsAverageStrike rateEcon rate
Mitchell Johnson2217.3634.43.02
Dale Steyn1226.4144.73.54
Johnson v SA top 71717.4735.82.93
Steyn v Aus top 7930.0052.23.44
Johnson was dominant against several South African batsmen in this series. He dismissed de Villiers and Smith four times each, with Smith being out four times in just 13 balls. Petersen fell three times scoring 15 runs off him. The only South African batsman who fared well against Johnson was Amla, who scored 63 off 128 balls and was dismissed once.
Steyn was dominant against Clarke and Haddin - though he didn't bowl much to them - but was clearly second best against the best batsman of the series: Warner scored 117 runs off Steyn at well over a run a ball, and was dismissed once.
Johnson v South African batsmen
BatsmanRunsBallsDismissalsAverage
AB de Villiers77154419.25
Graeme Smith171344.25
Alviro Petersen154735.00
Hashim Amla63128163.00
Steyn v Australian batsmen
BatsmanRunsBallsDismissalsAverage
Michael Clarke71223.50
Brad Haddin11720.50
Chris Rogers4998224.50
David Warner117941117.00
The support act
Apart from Johnson trumping Steyn, what also influenced the series result were the stats of the other fast bowlers in the two line-ups. Ryan Harris was well below par in the first two Tests, while Peter Siddle was dropped after taking five wickets in two Tests, but Harris played a key role in Cape Town, taking seven wickets in the match. Vernon Philander and Morne Morkel, on the other hand, managed only a combined haul of 13 wickets in three Tests. Morkel bowled better than his figures of 6 for 381 suggest, but his inability to mix the fierce short stuff with the pitched-up deliveries meant batsmen were struck plenty of body blows off his bowling, but he didn't actually pick up too many wickets.
Philander had his first poor home series too as a bowler, though he was more than handy with the bat and actually finished with the highest batting average among South African batsmen. Before this series, he had taken 62 wickets in ten home Tests at an average of 15.24 and an economy rate of 2.70; here, his seven wickets cost him 51.71 each, at an economy rate of 3.70 - he offered neither wicket-taking penetration, nor control over runs conceded. Australia's fast bowlers offered more control even when they weren't taking wickets. As mentioned earlier, injuries at key moments severely hampered South Africa, but Australia were good enough to take advantage of those injuries, and eventually seal the series.
The fast-bowling support act for both teams
 WicketsAverageStrike rateEcon rate
Harris+Siddle+Pattinson1938.4277.052.99
Philander+Morkel1357.1593.003.68

Solo efforts, and old man Misbah



Muttiah Muralitharan's team-mates lift him on their shoulders as he leaves the field, Sri Lanka v India, 1st Test, Galle, 5th day, July 22, 2010
Muralitharan: 54 wickets in 64 days © ESPNcricinfo Ltd 
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Who scored the highest percentage of runs in a completed innings in ODIs? asked Ishtkhar Ahmed from India
Top of this list in one-day internationals is a famous innings from 1984, when Viv Richards clouted 189 not out in West Indies' 55-over total of 272 for 9 - that's 69.48% - against England at Old Trafford. That just edged out an even more famous knock from the previous year's World Cup - Kapil Dev's 175 not out in India's 266 for 8 (65.78%) against Zimbabwe at Tunbridge Wells. In third place is Andrew Jones' 47 out of 74 all out (63.51%) for New Zealand against Pakistan in the Austral-Asia Cup in Sharjah in May 1990. For a full list, click here.
In the Asia Cup final Pakistan lost five wickets, all to the same bowler, Lasith Malinga. Has this ever happened before? asked Niraj Kheria from India
That match in Mirpur last week actually provided the first instance of a bowler taking all five wickets to fall in an innings in a one-day international. There had been four previous cases of four out of four, by Paul Strang (Zimbabwe v West Indies in Hyderabad, 1995-96), Chris Cairns (New Zealand v Australia in Melbourne, 1997-98), Vasbert Drakes (West Indies v Bangladesh in Chittagong, 2002-03) and Heath Streak (Zimbabwe v England in Bristol, 2003). When India's Ashish Nehra took 6 for 59 against Sri Lanka in the Indian Oil Cup final in Colombo in August 2005 no other bowler managed a wicket - but there were three run-outs.
Did Misbah-ul-Haq become Pakistan's oldest captain during the Asia Cup final? asked Manoj Kurian from Bangladesh
Misbah-ul-Haq was already Pakistan's oldest captain: Imran Khan was 39 years 121 days old on his final appearance, Pakistan's famous victory over England in the World Cup final in Melbourne in March 1992. Misbah was 39 years 284 days old during the Asia Cup final in Mirpur. He's actually the oldest player - captain or not - to represent Pakistan in ODIs: the only other one older than Imran was Younis Ahmed, who was 39 years 151 days old during his final appearance in 1986-87. Misbah is also Pakistan's oldest Test captain (again beating Imran). Only two older players - Miran Baksh, 47, and 45-year-old Amir Elahi - have played for Pakistan, and neither of them was captain.
Faf du Plessis went past 2500 runs in international cricket without a duck in Cape Town. Is he the only player to reach this milestone? asked David Dudgeon from Greece
Faf du Plessis is the only current player to manage this: next comes Chris Rogers, with 1030. Another Australian, Adam Voges, has scored 1009 runs in international cricket without a duck. Oddly, all Rogers' runs have come in Tests, while all of Voges' were in limited-overs games. Quinton de Kock of South Africa has so far scored 999 international runs without a duck. The record for an entire career without a duck is 1352 runs, by the old Australian Test captain Herbie Collins. Five other players scored 1000 international runs without a duck in their careers: the Australians Reggie Duff (1317) and Jim Burke (1280), India's Brijesh Patel (1215), Brendan Nash of West Indies (1207), and Pakistan's Waqar Hasan (1071).
Mitchell Johnson took 50 Test wickets in about three months since the start of the Ashes series in Australia. Was this a record? asked Simon Townsend from Melbourne
Mitchell Johnson actually racked up 50 Test wickets in 90 days and seven matches between December 6 (the second Ashes Test in Adelaide) and March 5 (the third Test against South Africa in Cape Town). The only bowler ever to take 50 Test wickets quicker than that is Sri Lanka's Muttiah Muralitharan, who did it in just 64 days between November 13, 2001, and January 15, 2002 - in only six Tests he had match figures of 11 for 170, 10 for 135 and 3 for 231 against West Indies, then 8 for 88, 13 for 115 and 9 for 91 against Zimbabwe. The only man ever to take 50 wickets in five successive Tests remains the great England bowler Sydney Barnes: he took five in the final Test of 1912, against Australia at The Oval, then 49 in his four matches in South Africa in 1913-14 (the last four of his Test career).
One of the players for Guernsey in the ICC Division 5 tournament is Luke Le Tissier. Is he perhaps the son of former footballing great Matthew Le Tissier? asked James Dignan via Facebook
Luke Le Tissier, who made his debut for the full Guernsey side against Nigeria last week in the World Cricket League in Kuala Lumpur, isn't the son of the former Southampton football favourite Matthew Le Tissier. However, it appears that they are related: according to an article in the Guernsey Press, the Guernsey side "have a stack of impressive under-18s in the side, not least the off-spinning bowling all-rounder, Luke Le Tissier, who, when you get up close, looks remarkably like his uncle Matt".

The best batsman across formats?



AB de Villiers plays the hook, South Africa v Australia, 2nd Test, Port Elizabeth, 2nd day, February 21, 2014
Till the end of 2008, AB de Villiers averaged 30.34 in 26 home Tests; since then, he has averaged 63.05 in 25 home Tests © Getty Images 
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Teams: South Africa
AB de Villiers holds the record for playing the maximum number of innings before getting his first duck in Test cricket. Between his debut, in December 2004, and November 2008, de Villiers played 78 Test innings and opened his account every single time, before the second Test of the 2008-09 series against Bangladesh. After having scored only 3 in the first Test, in Bloemfontein, de Villiers made his first duck - stumped by Mushfiqur Rahim off Shakib Al Hasan - at the venue aptly named Centurion.
When he scored that duck, de Villiers' Test average dropped to 40.52, after 46 Tests. (Click here for his cumulative Test stats.) The next Test he played was a historic one in Perth later that year, when South Africa chased down 414 in the fourth innings, with de Villiers contributing 63 and 106 not out in that match. Since then, he has been on a tear, in both the long format and the short one. His numbers in Twenty20 internationals don't do justice to his attacking skills and innovative batting, but in the IPL he has been a huge force especially in the last two seasons.
Since the beginning of 2009, de Villiers has racked up eye-popping numbers in both Tests and ODIs. Compared to a Test average of less than 42 before 2009, his post-2009 average has shot up to 64, a leap of more than 53%. He has averaged more than 55 in each of his last six Test series, four of which have been against Australia and Pakistan, and one each against India and New Zealand. The last time he averaged less than 40 in a series was in February 2010, in a two-Test series in India, when he scored 68 from three innings; since then, in 13 series, he averaged more than 100 three times, between 50 and 99 six times, and between 40 and 49 on four occasions.
Similarly, his ODI numbers have soared as well, with the average going up from 36.40 to 62.51, a rise of almost 72%. Along with that, the strike rate has gone up to very nearly a run a ball - he has 4001 runs from 4002 balls during this period. De Villiers is also the only batsman during this period to average more than 60 in both Tests and ODIs.
AB de Villiers' batting career so far...
 MatchesRunsAverageStrike rate100s/ 50s
Tests - before 200948313441.7852.977/ 15
Tests - since Jan 200944403464.0355.1612/ 20
ODIs - before 200976233036.4084.913/ 14
ODIs - since Jan 200983400162.5199.9713/ 22
T20Is - overall5186721.67121.250/ 4
IPL - overall74166234.62134.901/ 10
Among all batsmen who've scored at least 2000 Test runs against all teams excluding Bangladesh and Zimbabwe since January 2009, de Villiers is the only one to average more than 60; Hashim Amla is close, with an average of 59.86, while Kumar Sangakkara and Jacques Kallis both average more than 55.
The break-up of numbers are very impressive too for de Villiers during this period: he averages almost 60 against Australia, and more than 39 against every side. (His lowest is 39.72, in seven Tests versus England.) Apart from India, he averages more than 40 in every country, while he does average at least 40 in every continent. In the first five years of his career, his biggest problem was playing at home: he averaged 30.34 in26 home Tests, and more than 55 overseas; since 2009, his average from 25 home Tests is 63.05, an improvement of almost 108%.
Best Test batsmen since Jan 2009* (Qual: 2000 runs)
BatsmanTestsRunsAverage100s/ 50s
AB de Villiers44403464.0312/ 20
Hashim Amla43401159.8615/ 16
Kumar Sangakkara40368656.7013/ 15
Jacques Kallis39334256.6415/ 8
Michael Clarke62535653.5618/ 15
Thilan Samaraweera34266253.247/ 12
Shivnarine Chanderpaul33240252.216/ 11
Rahul Dravid31264051.769/ 10
VVS Laxman31225950.204/ 18
Sachin Tendulkar42322849.668/ 17
* Excluding Tests against Bangladesh and Zimbabwe
Through most of his career, de Villiers has been a part of a strong South African middle order, which means he has often come in to bat with the team in a fairly strong position already. However, there have been instances when he has come in early with the team in trouble, and he done equally well in those situations too. That was most recently in evidence during the home series against Australia, when, in the first Test in Centurion, South Africa were reduced to 23 for 3 by Mitchell Johnson's pace and hostility. De Villiers walked in, and ended up scoring 91 out of a South African total of 206; in the second innings, he walked in with the score reading 49 for 3, and top-scored again with 48, out of a team total of 200. In fact, de Villiers' highest Test score of 278 not out also came from an early entry to the crease, when he came in at 33 for 3 against Pakistan in Abu Dhabi, though that match ultimately ended up as a high-scoring draw.
Overall at No. 5, his stats are consistent no matter when he has come in to bat: he averages more than 67 when coming in with the score less than 60, and almost 47 when coming in between 60 and 119. He obviously relishes batting when the batsmen before him have already scored plenty, averaging 131 in those situations, with five hundreds in nine innings. (Click here for his overall list of innings at No. 5.)
At No. 6, his stats are pretty good when he comes in early, but not so impressive when the batsmen before him have already scored a lot. That's probably also because of the need to score quickly, or the lack of batting support at the other end, when he has come in to bat at No. 6.
De Villiers in Tests at No. 5 by point-of-entry scores
Score (3 down for)InngsRunsAverage100s/ 50s
Less than 601581167.582/ 2
60 to 1191770046.672/ 4
120 to 2491770450.282/ 5
250 and over9921131.575/ 1
De Villiers in Tests at No. 6 by point-of-entry scores
Score (4 down for)InngsRunsAverage100s/ 50s
less than 1001573649.070/ 8
100 to 14917107471.603/ 5
150 to 249725736.711/ 0
250 and over1132736.331/ 1
Along with his impressive Test form, de Villiers has also been an ODI star over the last five years, averaging over 60 while scoring at a run a ball. MS Dhoni is the only other batsman averaging more than 60 during this period, though his strike rate is a slightly lower - but still impressive - 88.27. De Villiers has been unbeaten 17 times in 80 innings, which has ensured a higher average, but even when discounting that and taking the runs-per-innings stat, de Villiers still comes out on top: his runs per innings is 48.34, which, when multiplied by his strike rate of 99.05, gives him a score of 47.88. That's still better than all the other batsmen who've scored 2500 runs against the full members. (All ODIs stats here exclude runs scored against the non-Test-playing sides.)
Among the other batsmen, Amla comes close with an RPI score of 45.39, followed by Virat Kohli's 41.58. Both are top-order batsmen, though, which increases their chances of a higher RPI. Their RPI scores are higher than that for Dhoni, whose RPI is lower because he bats lower down the order. However, his ODI score when calculated by multiplying average by strike rate, is second only to de Villiers'. They are the only two batsmen with 50-plus ODI scores, with Kohli coming in next at 48.98.
Top batsmen in ODIs since Jan 2009* (Qual: 2500 runs)
BatsmanInngsRunsAverageStr rate100s/ 50sAve x SRRPI x SR
AB de Villiers80386761.3899.0512/ 2260.8047.88
MS Dhoni100405861.4888.275/ 2954.2735.82
Virat Kohli119542953.7591.1319/ 2948.9841.58
Hashim Amla70353553.5689.8810/ 2248.1445.39
Tillakaratne Dilshan120493146.0889.0816/ 1941.0536.60
Shane Watson93376043.2191.798/ 2139.6637.11
Jonathan Trott61259650.9076.554/ 1938.9632.58
Kumar Sangakkara125534646.8981.608/ 4038.2634.90
Michael Hussey83287442.8987.801/ 2237.6634.47
Gautam Gambhir77303842.1987.376/ 2136.8634.47
* Excluding matches against non-Test-playing sides
What's also remarkable about de Villiers in ODIs is the way he scores his runs. Despite his astounding strike rate, his boundary percentage isn't inordinately high, but his dot-ball percentage is extremely low - he is the only one with a sub-40% dot ratio.
Lowest dot-ball percentages in ODIs since Jan 2009 (Qual: 2500 runs)
BatsmanRunsBallsDot %Boundary %
AB de Villiers3867390439.8341.17
Michael Hussey2874327343.6035.07
Suresh Raina3304347245.5145.52
Hashim Amla3535393346.0941.75
Virat Kohli5429595746.8444.24
So far, his stats in Twenty20 internationals aren't in keeping with his class and his numbers in other formats. Against the Test-playing sides, de Villiers averages 19.76 in Twenty20 internationals, at a strike rate of 116.81, numbers that do him no justice at all. His average is 37th out of 41 players who've scored at least 500 runs against these sides.
His IPL numbers, though, are outstanding: in the last two seasons, he has averaged 37.72 at a strike rate of 162.8. Over the next few weeks, he'll get an opportunity to right his T20I stats as well. With the form he has been in recently, you wouldn't wan to bet against that.